Monthly Archives: September 2012

On Leveraging Advanced Predictive Analytical Solutions

Data, Methods, and Project Management Opportunities in Advanced Marketing Analytics
  
It is a good idea for organizations, academic institutes, and aspiring students to spot trends in analytics and predictive methods.  This helps the analytics market place achieve efficiency in designing the right training, instituting the right hiring process and benefiting by the analysts skills.

The trends in data collection, availability of data, methods, and tools are heavily influenced by the fast changing market response to the life-style dynamics of consumers.  To quote an extreme example of challenge for companies, companies find it hard to adjust quickly to the multitude of channels of communication and real time engagement demands of consumers that are complicated by pervasiveness of the tablets and smart phones.  These are changing the dynamics of data elements, data collection, privacy, methods of data analysis, and usability of analytics.  The clients/companies are clamoring for consumer intelligence at their finger tips.

In this note, barring the detailed discussion on the above extreme example for now, I bring together some of the more immediately addressable opportunities for companies in acquiring data resources, and applying methods to derive powerful data intelligence for not only defending the company in the fierce competition but also thriving by being able to compete analytically.

These are common demands in advanced predictive modeling methods, specifically in marketing, but the availability of data are not wide spread, methods are not well understood or standardized, project management requirements can be challenging because the talents are hard to come by, and academic circles are not well equipped with tools and also because of shortage of highly experienced faculties. 

Because of the combinations of above factors, these analytical solutions require longer term commitment and more financial investments from companies/clients to get the best from these types of projects.

Baseline Understanding:
Availability of data is considered high, when the data are already harmonized, qualified with data quality levels, and immediately available for usage.  These data assets are available either internally or sourced from third party.

The availability of methods are high when it is comparable to standard statistical, econometric, and computational methods with standard software such as SAS, R, and SPSS and academic training is widely available and solutions are common.

Time management is considered to be of ‘Low’, when the data management, analytical processes, and client communications are not well standardized requiring higher order analytical talents. So you can see why attribution modeling is ‘Low’ while Brand preference models are Medium and standard predictive models are ‘High’.

The resources are considered ‘Low’ when it is not easy to spot, hire, and train for high performance of the analysts to field a winning analytics team.  I have also provided ‘Standard data and Methods’ for comparison purposes.

From Data Monster & Insight Monster

Who has a Great Data Sciences Team – Obama or Mitt? – Is it The Science of VRM similar to CRM?

The spread of Moneyball philosophy – ‘Moneyball’ Godfather Bill James Tackles Politics In Super PAC Age

Background:
The 2012 election is crucial in the history of United States, an election where I believe the sequestration process of collecting the $17 Trillion dollars debt payment will be decided and political and tax systems will be developed to determine which segment of the population will end up bearing the more of the burden.

What an interesting problem? 

So no wonder rich 1% is willing to pay for it but they want to make sure Mitt, a brilliant and skillful business man has the right stuff to rule the country, face the democrates, and lead the world. Both sides are hawish on what they say, how they say, to whom they say the golden communication nuggets. 

This question was well established in the case of DNC with the continued commitment to put forward Obama as their candidate, a skillful and a brilliant politician who represents at least the 95%, so to say, but very difficult to beat the money that can RNC can buy in terms of communication channels, and time in the media.

What can I say; our political system wants to get the best out of the top talent.  However, whether whether RNC inside leadership group is correct or not is a totally a different question, doubting Mitt or still questioning Mitt at this time; also providing him talking points which are not keeping up with the time and changing world dynamics.

The purpose of this article is to bring out some really brilliant and focussed data sciences execution, and voter relationship management  ( VRM instead of CRM!) work that is happening in the DNC side as well as RNC side.

Execute the paradigm:  The right voter, right message, right time, right political offer.

Marketers specifically have a lot to learn from understanding the DNC VRM.

Look at this.

DNC knows its segment – the 95% of the people they are trying to relieve the tax burden and small business people; recently Mitt, defined his segment to be 53% (already RNC shown that it is insensitive of 47% of the people because of the confusion in the ‘right message’ concept and bungled communication)

The question of whom you communicate with what offer at what time, called “right timing” should have been settled by this time.

While I love the principles of RNC, it is very disconcerting that RNC does not have a cohesive message, nor they have an offer that voters can not reject, nor their gaffes are over.

Unfortunately, RNC likes to put this as ‘media loves Obama paradigm’, missing the real opportunity in using VRM!


Ref: http://predictive-models.blogspot.com/2012/09/building-predictive-text-mining-model.html

While one can not say all these things are happening because of data sciences team, i was impressed with Obama’s team with the following additional social marketing ideas.  They do this at the foundational aspects of communities.

Multi-channel Social Activism and Messaging Quality
They have active committed to volunteer group, committed to vote group, community to community reach out, SMS and eMail, President calling volunteers to appreciate, almost continuous communications from different levels of the campaign operations resulting with different tests of whose email being responded with money… His campaign is proving that small contributions from large people is better and bigger than some large people with large money (it is a separate question whether this is what democracy means).

Obama’s participation at twitter and facebook and also spreading more community (America in general) level activities to give the presence and impression of “I am the America’s President” is world class and most modern President ever.

On the other hand, the messaging and advertisement from RNC comes with the caveat statement implying their statements need not be “fact checked”.  What a tragedy for a great country that stands for beacon of principles and hope for the world.  According to Moneyball father Billy James, this is not good in the long run for the RNC.

I want team Mitt to have the best practices, for the best of the country so that differentiation between Mr. Romney and President Obama is not because of a better VRM program but because people can judge who can really be the leader to lead the country on the basis of principles and the constitutional rights of individuals.

Besides the point on the political nature of the analytics and one to one campaigns by either party, as a reader you can see that CRM principles are alive and kicking in VRM.

Update: 9/27/12
MorningJoe, MSNBC program, Mr. Scarborough emphatically mentioned that the diffused and contradictory messaging was getting to the voters to turn away from RNC campaign.

From Data Monster & Insight Monster

Moneyball of Politics – The Victory Lab Book

the victory lab“The Victory Lab – The Secret Science of Winning”.

The interview of the author Sasha Issenberg to PBS is available here:

The students of analytics are well off reading this book.

Today, Erin Burnett of CNN Outfront also interviewed the author which will be posted later.

It is a fascinating reading and many stories of legends including how Abe Lincoln was thinking about the early ideas of database marketing.

The book starts with the Colorado senate election in 2010 which was won with 15,000 votes differences by a democrate aided by a direct mail of one page laser printed letter, which was attributed to a 2.5% response rate and also aided by an email that asked for committed voters to go and vote who were not making the usual early votes counting to 74,000.

After the election results, “… Suddenly, the crucial divide between is not between  Democrates and Republicans, …, but between new empiricists and old guards”.

Though the result gets 2% or 3% response, that is all it takes to win an election in big margin;; some times not even that. Think of President Bush’s first time election which was decided on the basis of approx. 500 votes.

The implication for capital allocation of our country is enormous, especially if you think that this election is about who is going to control the ability of moving the $17 trillion in the sequestration process to which of the population segments.

Vote to get your voice heard.

Political Campaign Data Scientists

http://cnnradio.cnn.com/

How are the digital data, and online/offline big data are being used in political campaign targeting?

Check how off-line vs. online is determined …

Data points are billions, working with millions of emails, probably millions of profiles that converge to few simpler segments for messaging and revenue enhancing:

“…

[2:24] “What all this data and statistical modeling allows them to do is to very neatly sort out the people I should be trying to talk to to make an argument and the people I should try to talk to to change their behavior.”

Chris Talbot used to work for Google. Today, he’s a digital strategist with the Democratic Party.

[3:18] “When somebody activates online if you will, when they put their email address out there somewhere where we can pick it up, we know that that person who has an offline profile now is also this person who has an online profile. That’s the same person. Now we can put ads exclusively in front of that person.”

Issenberg says this new form of direct marketing to undecided voters will do much more to decide the outcome of the election than the conventions ever do:

[:24] “Everything we know suggests that nothing we saw this week is likely to have any impact in November, none at all.

Listen to this CNN radio talk/interview

http://cnnradio.cnn.com/2012/09/07/campaign-scientists-have-a-file-on-you/ 

From Data Monster & Insight Monster